Good Article on Penn State game

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/842610-college-football-odds-list-alabama-as-a-double-digit-favorite-at-penn-state

We Will Win The National Championship This Year!!!

 In statistics, a subjective approach to probability is one where an individual makes a decision on a “hunch” or a “gut feeling”; I will take this approach as I explain why we’ll win the national championship. In order for a team to win a national championship, they should have at least these 3 elements:

• A sense of disappointment from the previous season.
• An aggressive coach on either offense or defense.
• A motivating factor that gives the team a reason to play above their heads.

Lets start with the first in my criteria of championship teams; A feeling of failure from the previous year. Last year we entered the season with stars like Greg McElroy having never lost a game, Heisman trophy winner Mark Ingram, and back up blue chip running back Trent Richardson. Anyone would tell you the 2010 team was more talented than the team that had recently won the national championship, yet they lacked experience. Our young secondary was talented but lacked that game experience that is so critical in the SEC.

After going through the bumps and bruises of last year, we return an experienced secondary that should be improved. Talent combined with experience, makes this one of the top secondary units in the country. At least two guys from Alabama’s secondary are projected first round draft picks. Bottom line, our guys are disgusted with our showing in South Carolina and our letdown against Auburn after leading by 20 points. 10 and 3 ain’t bad, but we aren’t a 10 and 3 kind of crowd. We are Alabama.

Secondly, you have to have a coach that is willing to take risk on either side of the ball. This point will be short. Defensive Coordinator Kirby Smart is a fantastic play caller. When it comes to keeping the offense guessing, he knows when to be aggressive and when to sit back a just play defense. In our 3-4 style of play, there is usually somebody coming from somewhere on a blitz at all times. Our defensive staff is considered among the elite in the country, and they prove it by producing one of the top defenses statistically every year, with 2007 being the exception. With players like Courtney Upshaw, Donte Hightower, CJ Mosley, Nico Johnson, Josh Chapman, and Mark Barron leading the way, how are teams going to run against us. Don’t forget Menzie, Kirkpatrick, and Robert Lester. I believe this is the most talented team the UA has had in recent memory. All of the guys I mentioned are projected draft picks in next years NFL draft. That’s 9 out of 11 players, and they are all on defense. This defense is going to be ferocious!!!

Lastly, every championship team needs a motivating factor.  When we won the title in 09, the motivating factor was, “Finish”. We had recently went to the SEC Championship and got whipped by Tim Tebow and the Florida Gators. After losing to Florida in the SEC Championship in 08', we got thrashed by Utah in the bowl game. 

This year we don’t have to search very far for an underlying theme. We don't need a motivating speech or a catch phrase to get everybody pumped up; our motivation comes from the devastating tornado that tore through Tuscaloosa, then later the tragic death of one of our players. So, if you work with fans of other schools you can be confident when you talk to them about football this year, because this year our team will bring home #14.